"Prepare your organisation to respond quickly and
effectively," says the research firm. "Continually monitor relevant
information sources and adjust your pandemic preparedness plans as
circumstances change."
A bird flu outbreak could be more contagious and virulent than
SARS – and
Gartner is telling businesses to use experiences from SARS to plan
for a potential epidemic while ensuring business continuity.
If a bird flu pandemic does occur – and Gartner warns that the
likelihood is increasing – the spread may be rapid, leaving little
or no time to prepare and affecting many industries, economies and
regions worldwide, directly and indirectly.
The WHO and the flu
On 13th December 2004, World Health Organisation (WHO) experts
met in Geneva to discuss the potential threat posed by the
predicted mutation of avian influenza into a highly contagious and
virulent form that could quickly pass from person to person.
The WHO has warned that avian flu variant "influenza A (H5N1)"
could combine with a flu strain that's already contagious in humans
to cause a pandemic that might kill millions of people. H5N1 has
been found in poultry in 11 Asian countries. Attempts to eradicate
the disease haven't succeeded, even though 100 million birds have
been destroyed.
To date, 44 human cases of H5N1 have been reported, all in
Thailand and Vietnam. Most of the victims had direct contact with
birds; 32 of the victims died.
If an avian flu pandemic breaks out, the WHO believes that the
scale of infection might be considerably greater than it was with
SARS, which infected 8,096 people and killed 774 in 2003.
The WHO says that "even in the best case scenarios of the next
pandemic, two to seven million people would die and tens of
millions would require medical attention." The WHO urges the
development or updating of "influenza pandemic preparedness plans
for responding to the widespread socioeconomic disruptions that
would result from having large numbers of people unwell or
dying."
Because avian flu is an emerging disease in humans, medical
knowledge about it is changing rapidly. It is a potential threat
that could be particularly harmful to humans. Medical researchers
are constantly trying to develop new diagnostic tests and vaccines
for avian flu.
Although experience with SARS offers a good starting point for
contingency planning, historical experience suggests that an avian
flu pandemic might pose even more challenging threats than SARS
did, according to Gartner. Unprecedented international efforts
halted the spread of SARS, but health experts say the avian flu
could be harder to contain.
This is because people infected with it might be contagious for
a period of time before showing any symptoms, which would make it
harder to scan travellers for the disease. Also, it may have a
short incubation period, which means there would be less time to
track down and isolate people who may have been exposed to it.
Unfortunately, medical experts won't know for certain how avian
flu spreads or might be contained until an outbreak appears in a
large human population.
How organisations should prepare for bird flu
Include the possibility of an avian flu pandemic in your
business continuity planning and crisis management preparations.
Gartner points out that a pandemic wouldn't affect IT systems
directly, but it would likely cause considerable economic
disruption through its impact on the workforce and on business
activity.
IT managers can plan for threats such as avian flu because many
contingency strategies use IT to keep business running – even with
travel restrictions, quarantines or problems with vendors or
employees because of illness or fear. IT managers should ensure
that their organisations plan for a possible outbreak whose course
and consequences are unpredictable.
Use scenario planning to assess possible business impact and as
the basis for developing appropriate contingency plans for
different situations, says Gartner.
The 2003 SARS outbreak suggests that a pandemic may have the
following effects:
- International travel: Depending on the severity of the
outbreak, quarantines may result in travel bans or travel delays.
Health checks for travellers would likely be commonplace. Many
trips could be cancelled.
- Local travel: In cities or countries where an outbreak occurs,
travel may be severely restricted or even impossible for periods of
time.
- School closures: Schools in affected cities would likely close,
forcing many parents to stay home and care for their families.
- Health systems: Medical facilities could be overwhelmed,
depending on the size and virulence of the outbreak – particularly
in less-developed nations with already-strained healthcare
resources. As with SARS, containment methods would likely be
low-tech, relying on awareness campaigns, surgical masks and
isolation.
- Economic impact: Experience with SARS demonstrated that
industry sectors such as travel and hospitality would be rapidly
affected, with flow-on effects occurring in other parts of the
economy. Some sectors, however, would benefit, such as technology
companies that provide solutions for remote workplaces – but this
would be small compared with normal business operations. The effect
on individual communities could be prolonged if outbreaks recur, as
has happened during previous flu pandemics.
- Supply chains would likely be affected because of inspections
and logistics disruptions, especially where countries with high
infection rates are involved. Also, certain animal products or
other products might be banned.
- Personnel: Widespread illness could result in staff shortages
for providing essential community services – particularly in
medical staffs.
- Overall business slowdown: With travel limited and spending
reduced in many areas, sales and marketing campaigns would be
affected. Deals and transactions – domestic and offshore – could be
delayed.
- Fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD): Even if only a few people
are infected, the threat of disease could greatly affect the
behaviour and normal business activities of others. Discussion and
speculation about the situation would further reduce workforce
productivity.
Don't wait for an outbreak to review or establish contingency
plans, urge the researchers. Many strategies take time to set up.
Gartner recommends the following key activities:
- Make your workforce aware of the avian flu threat and the steps
you're taking to prepare for it.
- Assess your business continuity preparedness for this type of
workforce outage scenario and try to improve it (if
necessary).
- Assign someone in your business to track biological threats
such as the avian flu. He or she should regularly review business
continuity plans and update them in response to new
information.
- Establish or expand policies and tools that enable employees to
work from home with broadband access, appropriate security and
network access to applications.
- Expand online transaction and self-service options for
customers and partners.
- Work with customers and partners to minimise any disruption by
developing coordinated crisis response capabilities.
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