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Official figures project 27.5m households in England by 2037


The Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) has released its latest official projections of household formations, estimating the formation of 5.2 million new households in England between 2012 and 2037.

The 2012-based sub national household projections, released last week estimate an average household growth of 210,000 in England between 2012 and 2037. Particularly strong household growth is expected in the south-east and the east of England with the slowest growth projected in the north and the north-west.

Local authorities are required under the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) to keep their local plans up-to-date and the DCLG's household projections provide the starting point for councils' assessments of the overall housing need in their areas.

The DCLG's last full set of projections, in 2008, estimated faster growth, of 232,000 households per year, and interim figures produced in 2011 gave an estimated growth rate of 221,000 households per year.

Members of the property industry urged caution in interpreting the lower rate of household formation projected in the latest figures, which are influenced by recent recessionary trends.

"There is a risk that in the face of lower household projections for England it is assumed that the housing crisis will abate without concerted efforts to boost the supply of new homes," said Richard Laming, director and head of economics of planning consultancy Turley Associates. "However, the housing supply and demand continue to be out of balance, and housing remains an unaffordable prospect for many households. Now is not the time to 'take the foot off the gas' in correcting decades of under provision of housing."

The projections come only days after the DCLG revealed that house building completions remained below 125,000 for the sixth consecutive year in 2014.

Following the release of the figures on house building completions, Henry Gregg, assistant director of campaigns and communications at the National Housing Federation, said:  “With building numbers below half what is needed, we’re creating a housing shortage that will be felt for generations to come … Successive governments have stalled for too long on this issue. We urgently need a long-term plan for housing that finally delivers the homes we need."

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