A new report examining the potential of broadband internet access
and what it will mean for the European market predicts 21% of all
European households, or 18 million people, will have broadband
access by 2003.
The report from international media analysts, Screen Digest, in
partnership with internet research company Van Dusseldorp &
Partners, shows current figures for cable modem and DSL (Digital
Subscriber Line) penetration of European households at 1.79% - up
three times on 1999's figure of 0.48%. The report projects that by
2003, penetration will stand at over 21% - with over 18 million
subscribers - up more than 44 times on 1999.
The advent of broadband Internet access, which has been
available in the US for some time but is only now beginning to make
inroads into Europe, makes viable services delivering screen-based
content, such as films, television programmes and music.
Cable companies have established an early lead in delivering
broadband to internet users and, according to the report, look set
to exploit this advantage over the next 12 months before DSL
becomes more widely available. However, in 1999, there were 180
million conventional telephone lines across the EU compared to 45
million cable subscribers. This will provide DSL with a larger
immediate potential audience as it makes use of existing copper
telephone wires to offer internet access.
By 2002, the report says that most alternative European telecom
operators should have begun to launch DSL in competition with the
incumbents following the recent passing of an EU Regulation
requiring the unbundling of the local loop, which allows access to
telephone exchanges by other companies. The report anticipates that
this will see DSL overtaking cable in most of the markets under
consideration, capturing an estimated 70% of the 18.8 million cable
and DSL subscribers by the year 2003.
Germany's early adoption of DSL in preference to cable, means
that it now leads the market. Screen Digest estimates that by the
end of 2000 there will be 400,000 DSL subscribers and only 1,000
cable internet subscribers, compared to the next largest market,
France, which has 60,000 DSL and 122,000 cable internet
subscribers. The UK has only 30,000 DSL subscribers, putting it at
number nine in the European DSL league table. Ireland and Portugal
are the only European countries to have no DSL subscribers.
The German market will have increased to 5 million DSL
subscribers by 2003, whilst France, the Netherlands and the UK are
predicted to have 1 million subscribers each. This will bring the
total European market up to 18.8 million cable and DSL subscribers,
13.3 million of which will be DSL compared to 5.5 million
cable.
The report's co-author, Jonathan Watson, claims:
"Broadband will change the internet and will
change the way we use the internet. Much more different kinds of
content will be available, and it will be available on devices
other than the PC such as television sets, mobile telephones, games
consoles and personal digital assistants (PDAs). This will lead to
the internet becoming much more a part of our daily lives and
hasten the transition from the 300-channel universe to the 3
million-channel universe."
