Businesses hoping to sell over mobile phones will find that growth
of m-commerce will be slow, according to web analysts Forrester
Research. The firm says carriers are failing to recognise that the
revenue in m-commerce lies in better mobile services being adopted
by more consumers, not e-commerce revenues.
Several leading operators spoken to by Forrester said they
expect to reap rewards from generous revenue-sharing deals,
advertising and increased subscription fees. It says that US
carriers like Sprint and BellSouth are squeezing retailers such as
Amazon.com and Ticketmaster for generous revenue-sharing deals.
Last year, all carrier revenue came from subscriptions. In 2002,
carriers told Forrester that they expect 28% of revenue from
m-commerce and 3% from mobile advertising. Forrester disagrees.
Forrester predicts that m-commerce will see only small
transactions - and relatively
few of them. Its report says, “Even if carriers are willing to bet
on mobile e-Commerce, the number of parties demanding a piece of
mobile transactions -carrier, aggregator, content/commerce provider
- makes for slim revenue pickings for operators.”
It adds, “while purchasing with a mobile phone will be at least
as secure as tethered internet shopping, all bets are off when the
handset is left on a bus.”
The report suggests privacy concerns will also kill mobile
advertising and users will simply reject mobile spam.
The recommendations for operators include increasing penetration
of mobile use in the population (the report is from the US where
penetration is much lower than in Europe), improving “the mobile
experience” while keeping it simple, and innovating instead of
slashing prices. Concluding comments in the report suggest
that:
- Operators will be woefully unprepared for the influx of calls
coming into their customer care centers when mobile consumers
encounter web site troubles (e.g. if Amazon.com goes down, phone
traffic will go up enormously).
- eMarketplaces will latch on to the mobile internet quickly
because of their long supply chains and dynamic pricing
models.
- With new handsets featuring MP3 and voice browsing, plus the
rise of phones branded by the likes of MTV, specialised teen
programs will drive mobile penetration within households.
